A Law and Order Guarantee operation in Canudos, 1897

Canudos was an armed conflict between November 7, 1896, and October 5, 1897, involving the Brazilian Army and members of the social religious community led by Antônio Conselheiro, in the interior of the state of Bahia. This conflict arose after rumors emerged that Canudos was arming itself to attack neighboring towns and march toward the capital to depose the republican government and reinstate the monarchy. Although there is no evidence to support these rumors, three military expeditions were defeated, which terrified public opinion, which ultimately demanded the destruction of the settlement. In developing the simulation of this operation, I will use my adaptations of the components of two board games, "Combined Arms" and "Sniper", both from Simulations Publications, Inc. (SPI). There will be two main counterfactual constraints for testing this hypothetical scenario, one related to the decision-making process and the other related to the timeline, which will be combined to determine how the end of Canudos could have been different.